Assessment of the possibility of a long-term modeling of the ice cover condition in the Sea of Japan. V.V. PLOTNIKOV , V.A. DUBINA

Abstract

Assessment of the possibility of a long-term modeling of the ice cover condition in the Sea of Japan. V.V. PLOTNIKOV , V.A. DUBINA (V.I. Il’ichev Pacific Oceanological Institute, FEB RAS, Vladivostok), S.I. KISLOVA (Far Eastern State Technical Fisheries University, Vladivostok).

Using all available information about the ice cover condition in the Sea of Japan during 1960–2019, we developed and implemented the generalized physical and statistical model of a long-term forecasting for ice concentration fields and ice age in the sea. The model’s algorithm includes the stages of extrapolation of the reference values of the predicted element with a lead time of a year or more, and the entire field’s subsequent complete restoration, linked into the one scheme. These procedures, together with the ice information archive, allow us, in the first approximation, to solve the problem of a long-term modeling for the ice conditions in the Sea of Japan. The test results are presented, and the conclusion is made about the prospects of the proposed method and the possibility of its practical application.