Flood flow of Primorye rivers under the climate changes conditions: modeling, methods, results.

Abstract

The regime of the maximal flow in warm period, as the most liable to sudden rainfall floods is studied. The dynamic-stochastic approach was applied to estimate river basins response to the climate changes as input for hydrological models. It has been found that in the Ussuri River Basin maximal river discharges rise disproportionately according to increasing precipitation value, as the main part of the water balance equation. Based on accomplished calculations, including data of the General Circulation Models, it is concluded that the possible flood increase is expected in the nearest future (XXI century).